Finding A Rationale in the US Election Fiasco

Current Affairs

                                                                                                                 7 December 2020

– Special Issue No. 1 –

The salient point of on-going disputes is; Democrats are unwantedly branded the accused on this confrontational schema, since the government finally announced – the perceivable winner (but without legal endorsement). Even in the aftermath of the US Presidential Election, a political polarization was extending its force under the impact of extraordinary pandemic, which is still spreading bad news, every day and everywhere in the world. Global Coronavirus, something cannot be discussed under the normal circumstance, created a major obstacle for such important political event, as voting by mail before or after the election day had increased to an unprecedented level. 

In this prolonged unpredictability, were there any conspirators trying to plot something wrong for their political advantage? We don’t know. The investigation is under way. But so far, nobody seems to know including the US Attorney-General, except those who committed this appalling crime, and who noticed it accidentally. Was there such crime in the first place? Joe Biden doesn’t know either. He is absolutely innocent. Such a happening could never occur in any previous US Presidential Elections. The system is often criticized but it worked out well in the past. But this time, it went horribly wrong.

To defend his post, Donald Trump is the new type of American politician who brought a required stimulus to grapple with a heavily-bureaucratised system in America, expanding its negative influence since 1990s. Unlike his predecessors, he had neither experience in the Congress nor Governorship but this suddenly became advantage to him. To people’s eyes, he was an outsider to the world of this reinforcing bad politics. Not many in the old establishment welcomed him as he tried to gain some political experiences. Successful in the great city of New York and elsewhere (with some negligible set-backs), he is a proud American, and above all, one of the few who could sense such an ordeal was actually taking place in the United States – the place once deemed as the protector of democracy. 

Why is he so different from the rest? One day, his entrepreneur-father asked him to run his family business. The entrusted son then showed his business acumen as a property developer. A long-term risk that involves many people’s job, of which problems need to be dealt with a delicate and sensitive care, and responsibilities go on from the Day One to the end of ownership. In avoiding a sudden calamity, you must constantly study the relevant laws and the way of finance to protect the assets from lawbreakers. 

And yet, the value and people always change in the market. It is not a relatively safer paper (stock, bond, currency, etc.) dealings. Some say, you cannot understand economics, if you don’t know this most basic and oldest sector of business directly attached to the human progress and modernisation (since Sumer cities in Mesopotamia 3300BC – i.e., c. 2000 years before China). To be successful, you need to be not only intelligent/smart but also be sympathetic to all the people involved as leader must rely on their well-beings.

He also showed his talent in face-to-face debate, and used this strength thoroughly as he entered into the world of politics. Starting from scratch, he beat all the Republican candidates in 2016. Amazingly this was accomplished, despite the existence of a hostile news-coverage on unplausible scandals at the time. Nobody knows the intention of US media. But who knows, actually, they were supporting him by showing themselves not-like superman in front of clever people.

Equally, no other President of the United States was so constantly threatened by their own Congress on the various unfounded accusations, trying to remove him from his political career. How many of his former colleagues had betrayed him for their claimed political differences (or unknown benefit)? But he seemed to forget about all these constant allegations and nightmares, as he hits his golf ball toward blue sky…Nice Buddy!

You can only be the US President for two-term of 4 years each. His first-term presidency on all the fronts should be regarded as above the average, if not exceedingly so. He promoted Peace in Middle East and Africa, like a ‘saviour’. As pledged publicly, he made a progress for the issue of illegal immigration from the southern border with Mexico and rationalised other relationship with South American countries. To expel drug gangs and save appallingly-increasing addicts, which reached to non-negligible level, as he explained. Only unsubstantiated arguments were presented on him as a racist and anti-climate change in a constant propaganda-campaign. 

In fact, such trend of sectarian bureaucracy started in the 1990s after USA had successfully hampered Japan’s ascension to the No. 1 global economic power, after the years of frustrating trade negotiations. As if everybody became overconfident in America, the pattern of expansion in the opened US economy was gradually changing since then. A massive human resource, good or bad, were injected from all over the world, including Mafia, Triad, Yakuza and various yet-to-be classified sects. Despite the progress made by all-in-one thriving as a powerful American, soon inflation grew rapidly. Then, the public financial back-up/fiscal policy was required. And this practice became a routine and then unstoppable (like Japan). The stagnation began to destroy the balance between rich and poor (like Japan). Unknown to the public, there was no real growth (like Japan). 

Following this, South America was also inundated by such deteriorating economic trend in 2000s. In East Asia, Donald Trump finally faced up to this overwhelming but secretly-guarded problems in Japan, Two Koreas and China, by establishing a serious relationship with all of them. The warm sentiment toward him went even passionate in Taiwan, who was constantly bullied by the outdated tactics of Chinese military. Surprisingly, similar wishful thinking is also visible among Chinese intellectuals in the mainland, according to Asahi Shimbun. Why? Or what is the logic behind all these dangerous mishaps?

The previous US administration preferred pushing this grave reality under the carpet, and was too busy involved in other places such as Ukraine. (- How could Churchill have ignored Hitler in dealing with only Franco?) He treated the elected Russian leader with respect, knowing they are still important for America’s global goal. Worry for the world is, even academics in the US do not discuss on such things any longer. (Mind you, the US academics were the best at the time of Cold War.)

Above all, the determined US President brought back the Churchill’s bust to the main office of White House and took his utmost care with United Kingdom and all European allies, always conscious of their histories and sovereignties. He realistically adjusted a misguided and unnecessarily-overinflated old slogan; ‘the Greatest Country in the World’ to a more realistic; ‘Make America Great Again’. So, it is understandable that he needs 4 more years to rectify the current precarious course of US politics.

This former GCW version was once genuinely believed in Japan. And the concept was even enhancing during 1950s & 60s, under the country’s given-precious freedom of speech, functioned for the first time in its history. The Japanese economy continued its unimaginable expansion with heartfelt helps from the West. The Japanese did not know; however, this graceful politics was not only the consequences of the American diplomacy and constitution (the first amendment), but also arrived from the historical progress accumulated in the modern human history as a whole. Finally, the awoken-Japanese academics produced a stunningly seamless World/Eurasian and African history (from Japan to Britain) by the 70s. The work was absolutely required for the completion of Japanese modernisation.  But the diehard ideology didn’t go away so easily.

Meanwhile, America had to tackle, as everybody else in the world, ballooning public debts arriving from this unknown entity in East Asia. But Donald Trump seemed to understand the economic issues facing the United States is hugely global. He recognised that Britain’s leadership is again required to fix the global economic irregularity, where America should contribute as an equal partner. With his conviction and dedication, he was attending all the presidential campaigns energetically, then he caught the virus. When he showed his courage to confront the disease, in watching his struggles and responses, many Americans were inspired and motivated to support him. 

To attack and get his post, Joe Biden was selected to lead the ‘powerful-as-ever’ Democratic party. He managed to survive in a congested primary process. Initially, Barnie Saunders, a passionate socialist, led on the debate forum, despite a biasedly-claimed disadvantage that he was too old. As the rest of other young generations failed to shine, however, younger Biden’s age seemed completely vanished. Anyone who claimed that he was aiming for two-consecutive terms, however, would be too optimistic, if not lying. Indeed, he was chosen as the Stopper for the second terms of Donald Trump, the Revolutionary. The objective observation will tell us – his lame duck-presidency exists as a possibility, or might be even closer to the reality. Can the world afford this?

But why? Why the Democratic party could not send someone refreshing like FDR or JFK? Or even Harry Truman, the realist, from Independence, Missouri? Simply, because the party could not currently find any spirited-challenger like them nowhere in their bureaucratic ladder. But simple-minded privileged bureaucrats/nomenklaturas cannot run America. It was difficult to decipher Biden’s enthusiasm on any matters, other than Coronavirus, which must be ultimately relying on sometime conflicting views of physicians, and a huge investment on finding vaccine, medicine and other inventive measures in balance with actual economy. Politicians need to adjust it from the viewpoints of metaphysics but ready to be criticised everywhere by taking emotional blames and frustrations. In the States, the decision making on this issue could split between the Federal and State authorities.

His promoted image was a sort of ‘Uncle Joe’ who can be relied on anything and anytime. He has indeed a likeable character. Nobody could dispute on that. But is this good enough? The physical burden of US President could be lighter perhaps than a local Rugby player in Scotland. But we are not talking here about rugger’s capacity. Could he be the one able to match quarterback position for the winning team in Super Bowl? – had to be the question/answer for confronting the serious downward trend of the US economy (disguised by an ever-rising stock market) and its political pretence in stalemate. The danger for Donald Trump is that nobody can explain this debt-syndrome to the American and Japanese economists, when they are united and determined to ignore, as the matter is simply so deeply serious to their economic system (including their own job).

With his abundant experiences, indeed Joe Biden represents the Democratic party even more than himself. Rather than, Biden against Trump, it looked – Trump versus Democrats – as if the current global emergency implications have been completely forgotten. This was the costliest election in the world (BBC estimated as $14B) with a loophole for donation. Multiple-talented Michael Bloomberg’s entrance to the primary also enhanced an easy image of – Everybody can do it and You can try too -. This reality was indisputably acknowledged as the billionaire supporter ended up donating $100M to the Democratic party. The other Big-Apple firms also followed his example. Suddenly, ex-Manhattan magnate looks poorer in front of a hardworking political expert in the DC.

Sankei Shimbun added on this; ‘Bloomberg also donated $16M to Democrats in Florida to increase the legal voters there.’ The reporter questioned; is such thing legally allowed in America? Indeed, we perhaps need to assume that the Democrats and their supporters could have done it and all other available means in every swing-states, or even other flip states. (Why don’t you investigate your own hidden problems in Japan, instead of embarrassing our American friends?) Despite this effort, Florida vote went to the Republicans. And more money is better than no money under any circumstance. In any case, Joe Biden was luckily (or unluckily) elected to represent the Democrats. 

Usually, the US Presidential Race could reach to its pinnacle at the Presidential debate, as it could present an idea to critical casting voters, which side must be elected. In 2020, this was not the case, as they too often intervened each other. Trump tried to attack him by boasting on his own progress made. Biden perfectly defended his arguments by concentrating on the Covid-19 issue, and by not drawing into his opponent’s political agenda. He made it clear by countering the US president; ‘Will you shut up, man!’ – despite the fact that it was delivered with his impeccably-friendly tone. But from the global viewpoint, a some-worried might have asked; Is this reality in the other side of Atlantic (somewhat similar to the old Japanese way) could be eventually arriving to the British parliament?

Finally, the long-awaited election day of Nov 3 has arrived. We were all told on this Big Day that the announcement on this election’s result could be taking longer than usual, due to the counting for the extraordinary numbers of postal voting that must be also all verified. A bit more be patient than usual. But the mood has changed in the next day with uncontrollable excitements at both sides – as all records seemed to be renewed. Joe Biden with his smiling face got the largest numbers of vote in his favour in the US history. Donald Trump also exceeded his previous record. As the President and other Republicans anxiously claimed his victory, Joe Biden was trying to calm all of them down by saying; ‘Wait until every vote are counted.’

Meanwhile, incredible claims on voting fraud were already appeared in swing-states. Such as Republican officials were temporarily removed from the supervision, while the counting was still going on. Or non-eligible votes were secretly placed after the voting date, and so on. Does a public figure make such false claim deliberately on TV? – doubts came out endlessly and rumours heaped fuel on the fire. Finally, bad news struck the Trump camp; – they could be losing the biggest Pennsylvania (projected to win before the final mail-vote counting).

Without waiting for the dragging final result, however, the Biden team declared his victory based on their own projection on Nov 7, when the counting was still continuing in all the swing-states. All the major media endorsed his victory with hurray. He might have known that he had to celebrate a bit prematurely. What happened? In an absolute frenzy on the streets, SNS and by constant TV bulletins, it simply became odd, if he sits quietly and do nothing. With beautiful fireworks over the riverside of Wilmington (but no media reported if everybody could have enjoyed a well-deserved French-American dinner there under the circumstance), Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Vice President Elect, with a flavour of nouvelle politics in America, confidently declared their victory. And for sure, they would have prayed a smooth transition from the Trump administration…in due course. 

On Nov 10, by breaking the silence, G.O.P. finally made a decisive move. The US Attorney General William Barr declared that he has allowed prosecutors to probe alleged irregularities in the presidential election. This prompted the resignation of Richard Pilger in charge of the department. He explained the reason why of his decision with its legal background; ‘an important policy abrogating the forty-year-old Non-Interference Policy for ballot fraud investigation in the period prior to election becoming certified and uncontested.’ Has this timing issue some legal implications? (Now targeted as Dec 14) What is he doing now by the way? The world continues to be puzzled.

This seemed a signal for a full Republican ‘assault’. The veteran leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell, endorsed the governmental decision with Senate’s majority support. It’s no longer; Trump versus Democrats but – either Republicans or Democrats – reminding us of the O.K. Corral. The Tsar of the Senate explained the reason for his judgement; ‘legal ballot must be counted and illegal ballot must not be counted. The process should be transparent or observative.’ (True.) The same night, Joe Biden issued the statement; ‘President Donald Trump’s refusal to concede victory is ‘an embarrassment’.

In the following day, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and later, Vice-President Mike Pence also joined this Republican official line of – not-admitting the ‘defeat’ yet – policy in front of the media chases. The Democrats could not also go quiet. The situation is getting confrontational as the both sides enhanced their determinations. But the important question remains unanswered; Where is the proof? Some said, there was no such thing existed from the beginning. And others believed, it was already destroyed without a trace. But no one knows what will happen officially.

Nov 12 – Joe Biden appointed his veteran adviser, Ron Klein, to the key post for his Chief of Staff of White House to make sure boosting the transition process for the future Biden administration. In another words, the most baffling job to perform, like a door-to-door salesman in front of potential customer, who could shut the door at his call. As the US President Elect, Mr Biden also spoke to several World’s leaders and received cordial greetings. He was gaining his momentum when China finally congratulated him after a long lapse on the following day on 13th…Friday, while Russians kept their eerie silence.

Nov 23 – The Trump legal team headed by Rudy Giuliani, the legendary mayor of New York City, and Sidney Powell, told the reluctantly-assembled reporters that they made a very little progress on their efforts to overturn the results favourably for the President in the swing-states. Chris Christy, an experienced lawyer (barrister in UK term) and the former New Jersey (a part of which attached to Manhattan) Governor, called the confusions of president legal team a ‘national embarrassment.’ What was the real aim for this barnstorming exercise of the over-casted Trump Theatre?

Nov 24 – Giving in to the mounting pressure from all sides, Donald Trump finally conceded to Joe Biden’s demand for a formal US transition, after his victory was officially certified by the state of Michigan (but with missing gun of smoking). General Services Administrator said; they were acknowledging Mr Biden as ‘apparent winner’. At the same time, the President Trump vowed to keep contesting the election result but allowed his transition team to ‘do what needs to be done.’ Nov 25 – Joe Biden felt the Trump administration’s help with transition was not ‘begrudging’, as his newly appointed team trying to help him in achieving his goal. Some of his supporters would have shouted in his birth place of Pennsylvania – ‘Watch out, man!’

So, where are we going from here? Everybody would hope this ballot fraud investigation will be completed ASAP in America, and either Joseph R Biden or Donald J Trump could be declared as the winner of the election in a black and white manner. This could come out any time soon (in theory). Practically, however, this could be a difficult job to verify under the current behaviour patterns of the people. Even, if an illegal act was committed in the process, the investigator must produce the entire picture of the substantial fraudulent movements. Nobody can deny the possibility – this criminal investigation could take a fair amount of time to reach to a final conclusion.

There is no precedent to access this timing either. In 2000, Al Gore demanded the recount only in one state, Florida, with the involvement of the US Supreme Court. But today, there are at least 5 or 6 swing states that are targeted with public suspicions. The job could be more complicated and the time consuming. In any case, let’s hope that the results will be declared soon to make everyone happy, say sometime next week or even by early next month. In this case, you no longer need to read this article further. But we all have to be ready in case that this uncertainty is still continuing, say in the first week of January 2021. 

In any negotiation, time is always of the essence. What will happen, if the legal certificate of the fair election result still cannot be confirmed by the US prosecutor before January 20, 2021? – the transition date for the Presidency in the White House. This is a sort of the point of no return. Should the incumbent President continue to serve for the government, pending of any further legal confirmation against him, or new President Biden elect should be sworn in?

No rule ever established for such an extraordinary outcome. But what to do must be promptly decided…What’s on the President’s mind? In another words, Donald Trump as the head of the current US government remains still responsible, including to prepare for such result and reality. He must continue on temporary basis, subject to the coming legal confirmation against him if any, as the White House cannot be vacant. Joe Biden cannot take over simply because he has no legal endorsement…almost but not quite.

Under such unpredictable situation, the power of political parties at the government could overrule the standstill. Can the Democrats uphold their moral? Most people do not know if this crime happened or not. But most Americans do not want to associate with such an illegal conduct either, as it could cost them dearly under the US legal system. Unlike Republicans, some Democrats could be depressed even by the possibility to be blamed and disrespected publicly. Here the party’s integrity could develop to the matter of individual conscience in America (but this will not happen in Japan). And the negative reality might split up the power of ever-monolithic party bureaucracy.

Democrats has taken the majority of the House of Representatives but with a reduced number. The Republicans defended the Senate, as 50 of them were already elected. But in this situation, they must further extend their power in the Senate and cannot be complacent. The runoff for the remaining 2 seats in the State of Georgia is scheduled to be decided on Jan 5. Why Georgia has such irregular system? Depending on the results (one more gain as minimum), could someone ask to change the irregular system of the state of Georgia to the US Supreme Court? Unlike EU’s 27, USA have only 1 sovereignty.

With regard to the possible course of litigations, we need to recall, despite the protest from Joe Biden, Amy Coney Barrett was sworn in, swiftly just before the election. The Trump administration appointed three Republican Judges during his presidency, and Republicans have now (6 – 3) majority in the Supreme court. Legal matters should not be politics, as she declared. But this formation could facilitate Republicans, if any reasonable law suit could be launched for the election results at Supreme Court. 

In this ultimate deadlock, however, only remaining solution other than such legal battle would be a political settlement between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in direct negotiation, as this could decide one way or other in parallel with the legal process, which might run months or longer. Richard Nixon was removed from his office, while Bill Clinton defended to complete his term. As long-time politician, Mr Biden had an impeccable political career and he looks much stronger to defend himself from such a scandalous attack.

What could be brought forward as a critical subject here? In the first Presidential debate, Trump quickly touched the issue of Biden’s suspicious conduct in Ukraine. This incident was originally launched against the President by the US press as his inappropriate behaviour during the phone call to the President of Ukraine. In the final debate, The President indicated the existence of his inappropriate behaviour in China. The President Elect responded then; he never cheated his tax statement. It would be heart-breaking for both of them to fight on such issue. 

Did Donald Trump know something? Nikkei reported a long while ago; ‘The Vice President Biden visited China with his son by Air Force Two for setting a joint-venture with the Chinese state company, although his son did not make huge amounts of profit as originally planned (with all names and figures). We cannot confirm, if this is fake news or not. But they are usually reliable as Japan’s equivalent of the Wall Street Journal. While both Ukraine and China would be reluctant to comment, digging out on this forgotten matter will be the worst-case scenario. Let’s hope that this embarrassing situation will never develop in the US politics. 

Nevertheless, the decision in the US politics could affect all of us in the world. Such a general unpredictability is the emerging problem for our rapidly progressing globalisation. Notwithstanding his health issues recently raised by the Wall Street Journal – Is Joe Biden the best candidate to lead the United States in this particular time, as the Five Eyes’ tension with the increasingly militaristic China grew to an unprecedentedly dangerous level in the Asia-Pacific? Certainly, America cannot solve this issue of its manifested destiny by money alone. Above all, the political dispute should be decided without animosity in Splendid America, and elsewhere on our Earth, in particular, in order not us to become one of the plentiful rocky-stars in the Universe, whose history, we have absolutely no idea.

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